Heyer Capital, LLC

investment management and timely advice from a local CPA (Fox Valley, Wisc.)

Archive for October 2009

Commercial Real Estate

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Did the Fed pass out regulatory “Get out of the doghouse FREE” cards to banks today, or imply that workouts are up the banks and the Fed won’t help?

Is this related to investor whale Wilbur Ross warning today against the beginning of a “huge” crash in commercial real estate (CRE)?

Written by heyercapital

October 30, 2009 at 4:25 pm

Posted in macro econ

Cash for Clunkers costs taxpayers $24,000 per car/ how wealth is destroyed

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Cash for Clunkers costs taxpayers $24,000 per car .

CNN breathlessly reports that this “stimulus” program added to GDP.  Why, if it were that simple, we could just borrow and spend our way into prosperity forever.

Uh oh.  What if the world really doesn’t work that way?

Written by heyercapital

October 29, 2009 at 12:18 pm

Posted in Econ

Red light/ plan your picnic

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The character of the market this fall has been for the uptrend to fall under pressure, but inch up into newer highs. Once it makes new highs for the move, the rally – by definition – has resumed again. The sloppy action among the market leaders and the weight of the many distribution days has been too much and the market is now in a correction.

Remember, a ‘correction‘ can last a few days or a few months. Be patient. Read & research.  Build the watch list.

“Corrections”  don’t mean the market will plunge 60% in the next week. It’ll take six months. 🙂 Just kidding!   Given that IBD research has shown that 3/4 of stocks follow the general trend, it will likely be difficult to make headway in your stock or mutual fund investments against the downtrend.  I understand that sounds like I’m saying, “You’re going to get wet when it’s raining.”  Instead I’m encouraging you to plan your next picnic when it’s raining so you’re ready to go when it stops raining.

Written by heyercapital

October 28, 2009 at 7:58 am

Austrians take Salamanca (Jeffrey Tucker – Mises Economics Blog)

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Oh, to be free enough in time and money to attend a bona fide economics conference; such are the dreams of nerds. As the Austrian School economists congregate in Spain, we can only tune in via blog updates from the dapper Jeffrey Tucker.

The second full day in Salamanca – by Jeffrey Tucker

Here was a nugget from a presenter, a businessman from London. “…As he was attempting to transact business in Iceland, he recalled very well correspondence with the Iceland central bank. He asked whether he can send Euros in a business deal. They wrote back “no, we are in danger of going bust.” He praised the bank for being honest, and keeps the email as a historic memento.”

Written by heyercapital

October 23, 2009 at 7:07 am

Resuming an uptrend

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Despite the relatively high number of days of institutional selling (signified by stock indexes down in price on higher volume) we should recognize that the market’s uptrend has resumed.

The bears have lots of reasons, but no one can argue with the tape (for too long, anyway.)

UPDATE: the sentence above seemed cryptic upon re-reading, so premit me to elaborate a bit.  We’re still facing several days of distribution in the past few weeks, so it wouldn’t take but a day or two of terrible action to again raise the “Yellow-Caution” flag on the market.   The DeMark indicators – a technical voodoo I don’t follow too closely – still shows meaningful ‘tops’ are in place for the S&P500 as well as some foreign currencies.  The English (& loose) translation is that any “Green light” means proceed with caution.

UPDATE: Oct. 28:  The character of the market this fall has been for the uptrend to fall under pressure, but inch up into newer highs. Once it makes new highs for the move, the rally – by definition – has resumed again. The sloppy action among the market leaders and the weight of the many distribution days has been too much and the market is now in a correction.

Remember, a ‘correction‘ can last a few days or a few months. Be patient. Read & research.  Build the watch list.

Written by heyercapital

October 15, 2009 at 1:11 pm

Posted in stock ideas

infectious soda pop

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This video interview of a soda pop emporium owner is very infectious.

Written by heyercapital

October 15, 2009 at 12:47 pm